Economic effects of changing the quality and quantity of water in drought conditions, case study: Qazvin, Iran

Drought reduces the quantity and quality of water resources ultimately increases risk agricultural activities at farm level. Therefore, by developing risk-based economic models, effects changes in on farmers' decisions should be examined. In this regard, drought farmers Qazvin Plain Irrigation Network have been evaluated. For purpose, firstly, river flow was simulated using Qual2k model 1998–2016 then biophysical model, crop yield were estimated. Finally, calibrated a Positive Risk Mathematical Programing. The risky are estimated three scenarios, including increasing salinity water, reducing amount combination these two. results showed that response to is much greater than its qualitative changes, because change occurs shorter time cropping pattern leads products with less requirement such as irrigated barley. Also, profit (Gross Margin) farmer’s income declined all scenarios. Although negative due more but result will significant sustainability products.